Nagorno-Karabakh Deal Spells Victory for Turkey
The peace deal in Nagorno-Karabakh has dominated media coverage of Turkey since the beginning of the week. Turkish political support, experienced military advice and drone contributions facilitated Azerbaijan’s superior military position in the conflict.
Celebrations in Azerbaijan after the ceasefire was announced. Photo credit: Arif Hudaverdi Yaman/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
While on a superficial level this is a victory for Turkey, there is also a deeper geopolitical victory for the Turkish regime. President Erdogan’s expansionist foreign policy is a central aspect of his political platform. He has now solidified Turkey’s dominance in the south caucuses even compared to Russia. Russia’s attempts to enforce ceasefires failed twice and only with the support of Turkey has the conflict been brought to an end. Erdogan also has proxy military presence in Syria and Libya.
The lack of western interest in the conflict suggest that the caucuses are of less international interest. Western countries though distracted by coronavirus, terrorist attacks, and elections, showed little inclination to interfere in the region.
Turkish peacekeepers will enter territory that was “saved from Armenia’s occupation” and work with Russia’s peacekeeping forces in the coming months. There are suggestions, however, that the Russian peacekeeping force made up of 2,000 troops, 90 armoured personnel carriers, and 380 vehicles, carries a feeling of occupation rather than peacekeeping.
Sources
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/10/analysis-biggest-winner-azerbaijan-armenia-war-turkey/